It’s been stressful newsflow of late so I wanted to end with two data drops last week from Lauri Myllyvirta and team — one on India, one on China — and together they tell the story we’ve been arguing for years: solar is now doing the heavy lifting on climate, and it’s winning.
India: the first flat line in half a century
India’s power sector emissions have been flat for two years. It’s the first time in 50 years. Not because demand stalled — demand grew 7% — but because clean energy met all of it. Every kilowatt-hour of growth. That’s 63 TWh added, roughly the electricity demand of Switzerland.
60% of that came from solar. 77 GW added. And the build rate is accelerating again in 2026.
The second-order effects are often missed. Fossil fuel imports are down sharply. Oil and gas consumption is down two years running — which is precisely why the Hormuz shock landed softer than forecasters feared. Energy sovereignty isn’t a slogan; it’s a balance-sheet line item, and India is banking it with its multipronged National Solar Mission. (Hat-tip to Piyush Goyal!)
China: a crossover visible in monthly data
August: coal and gas generation fell 4%, with solar and wind covering all demand growth and hydro and nuclear adding on top. Cement production was down 12%, crude steel down 4%, refinery output down 7%. Emissions are falling across the board, not in one lucky sector.
China is where electrons spill into mobility. EV production is up 22% in August. Fuel-burning vehicle production is down 26%. EVs are now 61% of all vehicles produced in China. 61%!
On supply: some salient numbers for the geeks
506 GW of solar cells produced in the first eight months, which seems on track to match the 660 GW installed globally in all of 2025. The machine that builds the machine is still running hot.
An honest bit: emissions still rising dangerously
India’s total CO2 is still rising, because industry — steel, cement — runs on coal, and Indian industry has the second-lowest electrification rate in the G20. There’s 43 GW of coal under construction.
China’s fixed-asset investment is down 7.2% year to date, with the cleantech capex boom nursing a hangover.
Still, the two big economies are meeting their new power demand with sunshine and wind. Shine on ☀️